From the Great Moderation to the Great Fragmentation

The Executive Summary dinner at the Goring last week was a brilliant mix of debate and divergence.

Who doesn't like a showdown of geopolitics with a good beef wellington.

Before getting into the how the world is shaping up. Shannon Mahaffey from Origina talked the group about how Big IT companies are shaking down their clients for billions of dollars a year. The use of unfair contracts and strong-arm, bully-boy tactics have kept companies bound to Big IT for many years more than they should.

It was then time for geopolitics expert Tim Hames, former Director General of the British Venture Capital Association, Assistant Editor at the Times and author of Trump 2 - Why He Won.

And while the dinner was held under Chatham House rules, he has given his permission to publish his speaking points below, all of which point to an unpredictable world platform knee-jerking its way ahead:

Middle East: the invisible ink of peace

The Trump plan for Gaza was barely plausible a month ago. Yet even “Phase One” marks a dramatic shift. What’s not seen matters more than what is. Most geopolitics happens below the waterline.

Trump forced Netanyahu to apologise to Qatar’s Prime Minister at the White House for the September strike on Doha. He pledged no future action on Qatari soil.

In return, Qatar used its leverage over Hamas - its biggest financial sponsor - to press for the release of the 20 remaining living hostages. The trade: pressure on Hamas, protection for its leadership in Doha.

Qatar will now want something back. Top of the list: US help to fix its broken ties with Saudi Arabia. That relationship has been poisoned by Qatar’s soft stance on Iran.

Iran, meanwhile, is split at the top. The Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guard are in a quiet war with the President and the mainstream army. That creates a rare opportunity to reshape the region’s balance of power.

Jared Kushner’s reappearance in Trump’s team signals the US aims to revive and expand the Abraham Accords. Expect a push from UAE and Bahrain to Oman, Kuwait and maybe even Qatar. Saudi Arabia could follow - if Israel gets a new government.

The West: a decade of political decay

Between 2015 and 2025, the UK has had six Prime Ministers, eight Chancellors, nine Foreign Secretaries and ten Business Secretaries.

The US elected Trump, then ousted him, then brought him back. Congress flipped in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. It may flip again in 2026.

Macron is on his ninth Prime Minister in ten years.

Germany’s far-right AfD had no seats in 2015. It now polls above 20% and leads the opposition.

Italy’s Brothers of Italy - led by a woman - went from 1.9% of the vote in 2015 to running the government today.

From the Great Moderation to the Great Fragmentation

The old order is gone. From 1990 to 2015, the world ran on one engine: US supremacy, central bank credibility and globalisation. That era is over. Fragmentation has replaced it. The only question is whether it’s permanent.

But the US still dominates business

Eight of the world’s ten most valuable companies are American. Seventeen of the top twenty. Thirty-two of the top fifty. China has five in the top fifty - but only one is a tech firm.

China’s demographic time bomb will drive global power shifts

China’s population is shrinking for the first time since the Bronze Age. The one-child policy from 1979 to 2015 has locked in an irreversible age crisis.

In 2023, 2.5% of China’s population was over 80. By 2050 it will be over 10%. By 2055, the elderly will outnumber children.

This will force China to abandon the Xi model and tilt back toward Deng’s pragmatism. It also explains China’s focus on practical AI tools over cutting-edge breakthroughs. It needs AI to replace workers.

And onto the next event.

Tonight it's the big interview with Moses Itauma...